Swell Forecast & Schedule

Report Date & Time: Wed. November 20, 2009 9:45 AM

By forecaster: Austin Gendron: austin@wetsand.com

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Surf Synopsis:

Today (Friday) we’re continuing to see some sizable swell rolling in along the Northern and Central Coasts.  Another pulse of larger swell out of the Gulf of Alaska is due to arrive this afternoon, building to a peak overnight and backing down slowly through the weekend and early part of next week.  Winds are looking gusty today as a strong cold front passes through Northern California, bringing rain and stormy weather through much of the day.  The weekend is looking a bit cleaner, and the weather should be quite pleasant through the first part of next week.  Tuesday there could be groundswell approaching capable of sending some DOH surf to the region, followed by the possibility of another large swell Thanksgiving Day and the day after.

Buoy Readings:
46059 California Buoy has been deployed, but awaits activation
46212 Humboldt Bay Buoy- 13 ft @ 13 seconds from 297 degrees
46213 Cape Mendocino - 17 ft @ 14 seconds from 297 degrees
46026 San Francisco Buoy – 9 ft @ 13 seconds from 291 degrees
46042 Monterey Buoy – 9 ft @ 14 seconds from 298 degrees
46028 Cape San Martin - 10 feet @ 13 seconds from 297 degrees

The CDIP Buoy 157 is showing, NW periods dominantly about 12 seconds from 300 degrees, and south swell dominant at 12 seconds from 180 degrees.

Currently Northern and Central California’s stand out west facing breaks should be seeing surf around a couple feet overhead to DOH+ at the most prominent locations, while stand out south facing spots are seeing some sizable chest high+ to overhead wrap.

Water temps are in the low to mid 50’s through most of Northern and Central California, Crescent City showing 52, Pt Arena 54 and the San Francisco buoy is at 53 Further south Monterey is seeing 55 degrees and Cape San Martin showing 56.

 

Wind Outlook:

Today (Friday) south to southwesterly winds have picked up with the approach of a cold front becoming quite gusty in some areas.  There has been a wind advisory set, for the region north of Monterey although the high winds should only last through the afternoon for most areas.  Saturday conditions are expected to calm down a bit as the postfrontal weather sets in.  NW winds should return to most of the coast with the exception of areas close to the Oregon border, which could still see remnants gusts related to passing fronts to the north.  Saturday night a second smaller front could pass through Northern California bringing back some SW wind flow, but light to moderate NW gradients should return Sunday through the beginning of the week.  The Central Coast is looking at light to moderate NW flow through that period of time, with sea breezes picking up in the afternoon everywhere.

Weather Outlook:

Today (Friday) a strong cold front is moving through Northern California bringing gusty S-SW winds and rain along the coast.  Wind advisories have been set for areas north of Monterey through the afternoon.  It looks like the heaviest rains will fall north of the Bay with some areas possibly seeing 2 inches and possibly more in the coastal mountains.  Scattered showers should be found down parts of the Central Coast as well.  The front should pass inland this evening, allowing for rains to taper off.  There could still be a few scattered showers Saturday, but they will be fairly isolated.  Weak ridging should take place Saturday through the day, followed by a shortwave passing through the Pac NW overnight and into Sunday.  There is always a chance that Northern California could see some precipitation from this, but it’s hard to say elsewhere.  The first half of next week is looking dry and a bit warmer, lasting through Thanksgiving Day.  The next trough arrival isn’t due till the following day.
 

Swell Forecast and Schedule:

Today we’re seeing a mix of the two swells mentioned earlier this week, with the first backing off through the morning, and the second picking up later this afternoon.  Stormy conditions with rain and gusty SW winds could be a problem for some areas through the day, creating some very choppy surf.  The second swell due to fill in looks like it will have 13-second periods with more sizable surf during the peak late tonight.  It looks like Saturday could have much more ideal conditions as winds relax with the passing of the front mentioned above, and the swell begins to drop some.  Sunday the swell should continue to drop even more, but winds are expected to become even more favorable.   

Looking further out, the weekend’s swell is expected to slowly back down through the first part of next week.  Then today’s models are showing a development along the Western boundaries of the Aleutian Chain.  The current models are showing seas in the 35-40 foot range parallel to the island chain.  This should bring a 17-second groundswell from around 300-305 degrees to the California coast around late Tuesday the 24th.  The less than ideal angle will mean smaller swell than the current systems passing through the area, but still sizable and probably cleaner conditions.

Beyond that the long-range models for the north pacific are continuing to look promising as the jet stream drops in latitude.  This could allow for a fetch to be developed NW of Hawaii at about 40 N.  The 96-hour models are showing the system developing seas in the 25-30 foot range about 2200 miles off the California coastline.  If the swell manifests we could see 15-second swell arriving from 285-295 late on the 26th.  The models are showing this system only losing a little bit of steam as it moves E towards the California coast, bringing more sizable surf within less than a thousand miles of our coastline.  Even further out on the long range models about 168 hours out, a system of a bit larger proportion is showing NW of Hawaii at around 45 degrees latitude.  Current models are suggesting seas around 30-35 feet, capable of sending swell for the 1st and 2nd of December.  It’s way too early to call this one for sure though, so check back in early next week for updates.

Here's what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:
Today (Friday the 20th) the strong cold front passing through the region is bringing strong winds and rain too much of the Northern Coast and parts of the Central Coast.  Further south along the Central Coast, there could be calmer conditions and wave heights could stick around a couple feet overhead+ range through the day, but further north could be a bit too messy to get in the water.  Bacteria levels from run off will also be high, so be aware of where you get in if you do decide to surf.  Late in the day another swell arrival with 13-second periods should arrive from 285-300 degrees.  Wave heights are currently projected to be very similar to Wednesday’s swell, with stand out breaks in the DOH+ range, but again winds and weather could be the prohibiting factor.

Saturday the 21st as the storm backs off, the weather could clear up a bit, and northwest winds should start to take over.  This could mean for cleaner surf as the swell, which peaked overnight backs off through the day.  The angle continues to be around 285-300 degrees, with periods around 12 seconds.  Wave heights are expected to be DOH+ at stand out exposed breaks in Northern California, while some of the more sheltered locations could see cleaner overhead+ up to several feet overhead.  Stand out south facing breaks that can pick up the wrap from this one should see some surf in the chest high+ to overhead range.

Sunday the 22nd swell backs off more to the range of a couple feet overhead to several feet overhead at stand out breaks.  Typical breaks should expect to see overhead to a couple feet overhead.  The period doesn’t look like its going to change much continuing to show around 12 seconds, although the angle could move a bit more towards the 300 degree mark.  Winds are expected to be lighter Sunday from the NW for most of the coast, with calmer dry weather.

Monday the 23rd looks like another day of slowly declining swell.  Wave heights are expected to drop down to overhead+ at stand out exposed breaks.  Periods will back off to around 11-seconds as the angle of the swell shifts more towards 300+ degrees.  South facing spots should be seeing size decrease rather quickly as the period shortens and the angle becomes steeper.  Weather is expected to be dry and warmer through the day.

Tuesday the 24th is expected to see conditions continuing to hold size, but a long-period groundswell is due for the afternoon.  The swell is currently showing up on the models along the SW tip of the Aleutian Chain, with seas in the 35-40 foot range.  Calculations show that wave heights at stand out breaks could reach up to DOH from an angle of around 300-305 degrees.   Periods are expected to be around 16+ seconds.

Wednesday the 25th the peak of Tuesday’s swell arrival continues to hold through the morning with stand out breaks seeing surf up to a several feet overhead and possibly DOH.  Periods back off to around 14-15 seconds through the day as the swell begins to slowly back off. 

Thursday the 26th (Thanksgiving Day) could be seeing the arrival of another large NW groundswell.  The 96-hour models are projecting 15-second swell to build through the morning peaking late afternoon/evening time.  Weather conditions should continue to remain nice for the holiday, so if you’re not too busy stuffing your face with delicious turkey and gravy, you might want to head out for an afternoon or evening session.    

Further out we could see a couple more systems brewing in the North Pacific over the next 7 to 8 day’s or so.  They are way to far out, but if they materialize it could mean some fun surf for the last week of the month and start of December, stay tuned.
 
That's it for today, be safe, and get in the water!

~ Austin