Swell Forecast & Schedule

Report Date & Time: Fri. November 6, 2009 11:00 AM

By forecaster: Austin Gendron

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Surf Synopsis:

Today (Friday) another moderate groundswell from the NW is showing up, before an extreme swell hits the West Coast over the weekend.  This larger swell could have surf reaching the upper limits of TOH+ at stand out locations due to its ideal trajectory and close proximity of less than a 1000 miles off the California coast.  The SE PAPA buoy is currently reading 24 feet at 17 seconds.  Beyond that there could be another smaller yet still sizable follow-up pulse for next Wednesday, before conditions begin to back off through the end of next week.  The weather is looking a bit glum today, with Northern California seeing some light rain, before clearing up over the weekend.  Monday and Tuesday could see a bit more rain for Northern California too.  Be safe this weekend its going to get big…

Buoy Readings:
46059 California Buoy has been deployed, but awaits activation
46212 Humboldt Bay Buoy- 11 ft @ 13 seconds from 299 degrees
46213 Cape Mendocino - 11 ft @ 11 seconds from 282 degrees
46026 San Francisco Buoy – 7 ft @ 12 seconds from 306 degrees
46042 Monterey Buoy – 8 ft @ 12 seconds from 270 degrees
46028 Cape San Martin - 6 feet @ 13 seconds from 292 degrees

The CDIP Buoy 157 is showing, NW periods dominantly about 12 seconds from 285 degrees, and south swell basically none existent.

Currently Northern and Central California’s stand out west facing breaks should be seeing surf around overhead+ to several feet overhead, while stand out south facing spots are seeing conditions possibly in the chest high+ to overhead high range.

Water temps are in the low to mid 50’s through most of Northern and Central California, Crescent City showing 54, Pt Arena 55 and the San Francisco buoy is at 55 Further south Monterey is seeing 56 degrees and Cape San Martin showing 58.

 

Wind Outlook:

Today (Friday) some areas are still seeing stiff south winds along the coast, but conditions should change this evening.  As the large trough to our north moves towards the Pacific NW tonight, we should see westerly flow pick up aloft.  Saturday should see a bit more of a change as most of the Central Coast will start to see NW flow.  The region within proximity of the Cal/Oregon border may continue to see southwesterly flow through the weekend.  Then strong NW winds develop for the middle of next week.  Stay tuned for updates...

Weather Outlook:

Today (Friday) warm advection ahead of the cold front is bringing light rain to the Bay Area and north this morning.  Light rain should continue through the afternoon and the cold front is expected to pass overnight.  It looks like the larger system is expected to move towards the Pac NW Saturday, bringing some rain to the far northern region of California.  Drier air should move through Sunday warming things up for the weekend through most of the state.  Long-range models show another system bringing some possible rain to Northern California Monday night and Tuesday.  Stay tuned for updates...
 

Swell Forecast and Schedule:

Today (Friday) it looks like some 14-second WNW (~280-295 degrees) swell starts to build as a result of a moderate system that developed south of the Bering Sea last weekend.  Wave heights could be in the overhead+ range at stand out west facing breaks, as long as the winds cooperate.  

The big news though looks to be the large fetch showing up in the Gulf of Alaska today.  The large trough discussed above, which is due to just miss Northern California over the weekend, is currently generating 35-40 foot seas less than 1000 miles off the Central California coast.  This means 17-second groundswell for the weekend and considerably high surf possibly around triple overhead at stand out locations.  The SE PAPA buoy, which is located less than 700 miles off the California coast is currently reading 24 feet at 17 seconds.  The National Weather Service has already begun to show concerns that High Surf Advisories and Warnings could be issued for Saturday and most of Sunday.  My calculations are suggesting that a peak in swell could occur early to mid Saturday for the Northern California Coast, before slowly backing down through Sunday and first part of next week.  The trajectory of this swell is fairly good for our region, but the angle is a bit NW around 300-310 degrees. 

Beyond the large system mentioned above, there is another smaller system showing up on the 72z models in the Gulf.  Size has been downgraded, but strong gradients should be able to bring some overhead+ surf to the coast for the middle of the workweek.  It’s too early to call for sure though, so stay tuned for further updates.

Here's what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:
Today (Friday the 6th) there is a moderate head high to several feet overhead groundswell arriving from around 280-295 degrees.  Periods are expected to be fairly short for this one, most likely around 11 to 12 seconds.  The weather is looking a bit wetter north of the Bay Area as a shortwave low detaches from the long wave trough bringing a frontal system to the West Coast.  Late in the evening forerunners for the larger NW groundswell are expected to begin filling in, bringing long period 17-second surf in the DOH+ range to the coast overnight.  Winds should begin to shift overnight as well, re-directing to a more northwesterly angle for the Central Coast.

Saturday the 7th, the big news of the week, is the large NW groundswell (17-second periods) due to hit.  The originating system is due to develop out of the Bering Sea on the 5th peaking on the 6th, kicking up 35-40 foot seas just a few hundred miles off the California Coast.  Current models are showing an ideal trajectory capable of sending a shot of DOH+ and possibly TOH+ surf to the exposed California coast.  The NWS has begun to hint at the possibility of High Surf Advisories and Warnings along the California Coast for the weekend.  The longer period of this swell, and large surf heights could bring some decent wrap to prominent south facing locations as well.  The weather is expected to be dry and seasonal.

Sunday the 8th looks very similar to Saturday as the large groundswell begins to back off some.  Wave heights are expected to remain in the DOH+ range, and could still show some larger sets around TOH at exposed breaks.  Periods back down to around 16 seconds from a NW angle of 300-310 degrees.  The close proximity of the swell should mean large surf for the entire central and northern coasts, but the largest wave heights will most likely be recorded in Northern California and the Pacific NW.

Monday the 9th groundswell continues to back off to a more reasonable range of several feet overhead to DOH, with periods around 15 seconds.  Winds could become a bit SW for the northern counties, while the end of the trough heads E.  High pressure is due to set in through the day, bringing back NW winds along the Central Coast.

Tuesday the 10th size continues to drop down to the range of a couple feet overhead with 13-second periods.  It looks like there could be some cold rainy weather as well.

Wednesday the 11th the second follow up system could build through the day, peaking in the afternoon with wave heights a couple feet overhead at exposed NW facing locations.  This swell could be a bit steeper from the NW, with an angle of about 300-315 degrees.  Periods are looking to be around 12-seconds during the peak, before backing down over night.

Thursday the 12th continued 12-second swell from the NW, with wave heights holding around a couple feet overhead. 

Further out it looks like leftover swell through the second half of next week, with nothing too major showing up on the long-range models.  Stay tuned for any changes.
 
That's it for today, be safe, and get in the water!

~ austin