Swell Forecast & Schedule

Report Date & Time: Tue. Mar. 9, 2010 6:46 AM
By forecaster: Nathan Cool

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Surf Synopsis
This morning (Tuesday) we have some terribly sloppy NW wind and ground swell building along the California coast. Swell should increase throughout the day, peaking Wednesday. Conditions should improve Thursday as the NW backs down, although we are headed into a tidal swing as we approach a New Moon on Monday (15th). Another round of NW wind/ground swell is due this weekend, yet that too is not looking all too pretty. Long range not too hopeful at the moment, although there are signs of life in both hemispheres.

Currently, periods in SoCal are running 12 seconds from a very steep 305 degrees, and 8 seconds from 300-330 degrees.

Right now in SoCal, well-exposed west facing breaks are looking at sets running head high with standouts seeing overhead pluses. Direct south facing breaks are looking at waist to chest high sets. Conditions though are looking very poor.

Please note that there is a high risk of rip currents today, especially during the outgoing tide, and especially at west facing beaches. Alongshore currents are a risk today as well. The NWS has posted high surf advisories. Caution is advised.

 

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Wind Outlook
Winds at 6:00 this morning were onshore most everywhere: west to 15 mph in San Diego, west to 12 mph in Santa Barbara, and onshore from all points in-between. All elements have come together for a springtime onshore wind-fest: a passing low has placed tight NW gradients over the area, and cold air advection is underway as cold air aloft is being driven towards our area. Cold winds should increase today, possibly to 25 mph or more near the coast. In fact, the NWS has issued wind advisories for OC and SD county coasts and other areas as well. Gale warnings are also in effect and the NWS has issued myriad other warnings as well. On Wednesday, the cold NW flow is expected to continue as another low moves into the area, bringing with it a lot more cold air to keep the thermal gradients tight and the wind machine going. Thursday though sees high pressure move into the area as cold air retreats. This should setup a mild Santa Ana, with the coasts seeing light offshore breezes in the AM, and the more usual afternoon onshores 7-12 mph. On Saturday though another low passes by to the north, which could increase the onshore effect for the weekend.

 

Weather Outlook
NOTE: NWS warnings in effect.
Trough and low are passing to the east, ushering in cold air and the wind issues mentioned above. Beaches will be lucky to see even the high 50s today, and OC/SD still have a slight chance of precipitation today. Another weak front moves through the area tonight into Wednesday morning, but rain chances are nil in SoCal. Cold air though, and winds like today, are expected to persist Wednesday. High pressure building into the area Thursday and Friday should warm beaches into the mid 60s. The weekend is then likely to cool a bit as another storm passes to the north. So far, no rain is expected in SoCal from this system, leaving the weekend forecast dry.

 

Swell Forecast and Schedule
Synopsis
Still pretty much on track since Sunday's report: Northern Pacific remains in a sad state of affairs for both surf and drought relief. Jetstream is still riding high to the north, keeping swells and rainmakers away from SoCal. In the near term, models show plenty of activity in the Gulf of Alaska, but none setup to do us much good in the way of surf or rain. The southward bend in the jet has been placed near to the continental U.S., driving the high riding storms south toward SoCal. Such was the case over the past 24 hours, with a nasty looking fetch forming a bit too close to the coast for comfort. This morning, Harvest Platform was at 16 feet at 12 seconds, and San Nicholas Island was at 13 feet with 9 and 12 second periods. Angled from 305-320°, most of this will skirt past SoCal, although the swell will peak Wednesday morning. This though, unfortunately, is looking like modus operandi for the near term: swells forming high in the Gulf, diving directly south with too steep of an angle for SoCal. Another such burst is due over the weekend, as though someone hit the replay button on the Pacific. Some wind swell is likely to come into the area Saturday and Sunday, but from a very steep an angle, with the fetch-forming-low getting close enough to our area to degrade conditions.

Between today's/Wednesday's swell and the weekend NW'er, some southern hemi SW should be noticeable as NW energy backs off and conditions (temporary) clear. There has been light activity near Antarctica over the past week, small enough to (usually) be ignored. With NW energy dropping off dramatically later this week though, the wave hungry can expect a few morsels around south facing breaks Thursday and Friday, mostly from 190° with 14-second periods. It's not a lot, but given the state of affairs now, it's definitely worth mentioning.

Long range southern hemi models continue to show signs of SW hope for later this month. The system for the 23rd though has been downgraded, but another could bring a little better something around the 25th. Too early to call today, but I'll stay on top of it and keep you posted.

Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:

 

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Wednesday the 10th looks similar for size and conditions: head high to 1-2 feet overhead at west facing breaks, with poor conditions.

Thursday the 11th the wind swell should back off and conditions should improve. A touch of southern hemi is also expected. Most all breaks are looking at waist high waves, although west facing breaks may see some pluses.

Friday the 12th looks like a waist high day most everywhere.

Saturday the 13th into Sunday the 14th we may see another round of NW wind/ground swell. If we get anything sizable from this, conditions would likely be poor. More on this in my next report.

Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the line-up!

—Nathan