Swell Forecast & Schedule

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Surf Synopsis
This morning (Sunday) we have mostly moderate NW wind swell along the California coast. Some southerly swell comes our way next weekend, and it looks like we may see some decent sized SW swell around the 16th-17th. Condition-wise, big changes in store this week for weather, wind issues are highly likely some days, and we'll be heading into one heck of a tidal swing shortly.

Currently, periods are primarily running 9 seconds from 310° and 15 seconds from 175°.

In SoCal, most west facing breaks are running waist to chest, with standout west facing breaks able to work the steep angled NW wind swell seeing chest+ sets. South facing breaks are mostly knee to waist.

Wind Outlook
Winds at 7:00 this morning were light and variable most everywhere. Onshores should increase this afternoon to 8-13 mph. Troughing pushing south will increase onshore gradients this week. Coastal eddies are highly likely each day this week, putting southerly texture on the surface (3-6 mph southerly breezes early). It looks like gradients will become rather strong Tuesday through Thursday, which could kick up afternoon onshores in the 15-20 mph range then.

Weather Outlook
Major shift in weather pattern in underway. Persistent troughing pushing south from the Gulf will keep SoCal under the influence of an onshore flow starting today, lasting through much of the week, with very little recuperation next weekend. Thermal inversion is strong today, making for some extremely dense fog along the coast (temps above 1000 feet are rather warm, while sea level temps are extremely cool in comparison...hence, a very strong inversion today). Max beach temps today will near the 70-degree mark. Monday sees temps drop to max mid 60s as strong troughing pushes warm air out of the region. Tuesday looks cooler. The strongest onshore days are looking like Wednesday and Thursday when a strong low in the trough bears down on SoCal. The gradients may be strong enough to actually scour out the marine layer and leave skies clear at the coast; however, cold air in the trough/low could push beach highs into the low 60s. Trough should lift north for the weekend, but no major high pressure is expected to build in, so look for an extended period of (once again) below normal temps.

Swell Forecast and Schedule
Synopsis
Wind swell is on the rise with buoys in NCal going from just 4' a day ago to over 9' this morning. Periods are tight, about 9 seconds max. Angle of the wind swell is steep (310°+), making it tough for many breaks in SoCal to pull in any size; still, standout west facing breaks should see some action out of this today. Water temps remain quite cool with Ventura, Zuma, and Huntington beach in the high 50s; even many spots of SD are barely seeing 62° water temps (about ten degrees cooler for this time of year). With the onshore flow about to strengthen and northerly winds increasing in the outer waters, we could see upwelling this week, so water temps are not looking to warm any time soon. The tide is also something to take note of this week: a New Moon Wednesday is creating a radical tidal swing, but the deep highs will be more noticeable by the weekend, shutting down many spots late in the morning then.

Next weekend's tide will pose an issue for the next swell coming our way. Saturday the 11th into Sunday the 12th we should see some 175° energy come up from a small system that's been swirling south of Easter Island the past couple of days. With only 20-25' seas, it ain't much, but its trajectory has been northward, throwing swell energy towards SoCal. Still, whit is not looking momentous by any means, with only 14+ second periods, and size chest high is we're lucky around standouts. Once that tide though starts to rise late in the morning, many spots will get shut down from the extreme tidal depths, especially the reefs and points.

The 72h+ models show a bigger system breaking off Antarctica southeast of New Zealand moving northward south of French Polynesia. This could hold 30+' seas and maintain a good-sized fetch for a couple days. ETA right now is scheduled for the 16th-17th in SoCal, and this could approach a head high swell event; however, conservative calculations this morning point to chest to shoulder high surf. Angle would be around 200° with periods about 16 seconds. Still working on the long range models with this one, but I'll keep any eye on it and keep you posted.

Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:

Monday the 6th should see a slight increase in NW wind swell, about chest high for most all west facing breaks with pluses possible at standouts. South facing breaks are looking at knee to maybe waist high waves.

Tuesday the 7th wind swell should back off. Most all breaks are looking at knee to waist high surf.

Wednesday the 8th looks smaller at this point, perhaps knee+ most everywhere.

Thursday the 9th also looks rather small: knee high most everywhere.

Friday the 10th looks smaller.

Saturday the 11th we should see swell start to build from the Easter Island swell. Most south facing breaks are looking at waist high surf in the early AM, building to about chest max later in the day.

Sunday the 12th this swell should peak with chest high sets around most south facing breaks. Note that the 175° angle though will limit this swell to direct south facing breaks; SW exposed spots will see less energy.

Monday the 13th this swell should back down to waist to chest.

Tuesday the 14th, so far, looks smaller, about waist high most everywhere.

Wednesday the 15th, so far, looks unimpressive as well.

Thursday the 16th into Friday the 17th is the ETA for our next southern hemi swell...more on that in my next report...

Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the line-up!

—Nathan