Swell Forecast & Schedule

Report Date & Time: Tue. Mar. 16, 2010 8:08 AM
By forecaster: Nathan Cool

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Surf Synopsis
This morning (Tuesday), we have some building NW ground swell along the California coast. Size increases Wednesday in SoCal. NW swell backs off Friday, but light southern hemi SW will be noticeable then. Northern hemisphere still has a few systems on the models, though nothing exciting just yet. We are though on track for that SW swell on Tuesday the 23rd.

Currently, periods in SoCal are running 13 seconds from 290°. Some forerunners from Wednesday's swell are starting to come through from 305° with 17-second periods.

Right now in SoCal, well-exposed west facing breaks are looking at sets running chest high. Direct south facing breaks are looking at waist high waves. Some pluses can be expected from the occasional forerunners today.

 

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Wind Outlook
Winds at 8:00 this morning were light and variable most everywhere with a NE element. Pt. Mugu showed the strongest winds, east at 18 mph. Elsewhere, NE winds were hovering around 3-9 mph, calm though in many spots. As high pressure remains well intact over the America West today, offshore breezes should remain mild throughout the morning, turning mildly onshore this afternoon 5-10 mph. The high breaks down Wednesday as troughing pushes through to the north. Still no big influence on winds though, with Wednesday through at least Friday seeing light and variable -- mostly offshore -- breezes in the AM, and the usual onshore suspects in the afternoon. Wednesday though may see afternoon onshores 15+ as the bulk of the troughing moves through the state.

 

Weather Outlook
Still high and dry for SoCal. High pressure remains strong over the area as the jetstream stays far to the north. No rainmakers are expected to even come close to our region this week (or beyond). Beaches should reach the low to mid 70s today. And even though troughing moves in tomorrow, beaches are still expected to remain around 70° through Thursday. Friday and Saturday may see the beaches in the upper 60s before a warm-up Sunday.

 

Swell Forecast and Schedule
Synopsis
SoCal buoys fairly ho-hum this morning, but swell is starting to hit the northern buoys, signaling the NW'er for Wednesday. Santa Monica buoy was at a measly 2.6 feet at 12 seconds, but Cape San Martin was up to 11 feet at 16 seconds, and Harvest was on the rise as well. This swell, that will hit SoCal Wednesday, is from a Western Pacific system that formed last week, rode high in the jetstream, but built into a fetch with 30-foot seas once near the Gulf. The fetch formed at a moderate latitude, enough to bring some slightly overhead NW from around 290-300° for the well-exposed west facing breaks in SoCal.

The southern hemisphere has been quite active, and a light swath of SW is due Friday the 19th when the NW begins to back down. This light activity that formed near Antarctica late last week may only bring in waist to maybe chest high stuff from 190° with 14-second periods. But somewhat bigger swell is coming in behind it for the 23rd.

Before then, it looks like we'll see an ever-so-slight increase in NW swell on Sunday the 21st. The 60h models show a development in the Gulf, but with only 20-foot seas max -- enough to bring in possibly waist+ surf to SoCal west facing beaches. All the while, some light southern hemi should remain.

Southern hemi energy then increases on Tuesday the 23rd. About 48 hours ago models showed a nicely sized fetch near New Zealand growing into 35- to near 40-foot seas. The trajectory on this though was not ideal, and some angular spreading decay is expected. A fair amount of swell was thrown our way though, mostly from 210° with at least 16-second periods -- 18 seconds are not out of the question. It looks, so far, like max size should reach shoulder high or so at south facing breaks as this system, which is still swirling about in the lower 50s, is still pumping swell our way. Wednesday the 24th in fact may see head high waves from this. More on this in my next report.

The super long range (132h+) northern hemi models show a possible WNW swell for the 25th. Too early to call this one today, especially given the extent of this projection.

Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:

 

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Wednesday the 17th should see surf running head high to slightly overhead from 290-300°. South facing breaks are looking at chest high wrap from this.

Thursday the 18th this swell may increase about 10%.

Friday the 19th this NW'er should back off to around chest high or so. Some southern hemi from 190° should come into the mix, mostly waist to maybe chest high at times at south facing spots.

Saturday the 20th the NW backs off even further to around waist high. Light southern hemi should remain at waist+ or so as well.

Sunday the 21st, so far, looks fairly small for west facing breaks, perhaps waist+ at best. South facing breaks should see waist+ waves as well.

Monday the 22d, so far, looks smaller.

Tuesday the 23rd is when our next southern hemi swell is due. This is looking like a shoulder high swell for most south facing breaks.

Wednesday the 24th this SW swell may increase a tad. More on this in my next report.

Until my next report, take care, be safe, and smile in the line-up!

—Nathan