Swell Forecast & Schedule

Report Date & Time: Sun. Mar. 14, 2010 8:13 AM
By forecaster: Nathan Cool

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NOTE: My usual schedule (Tue. AM and Thu. AM) may be delayed this week due to some personal commitments this week. I'll still though provide two other reports this week to keep you up to date on what's happening across the Pacific, and swell headed to SoCal.

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Surf Synopsis
This morning (Sunday, 3/14, Pi Day), we have mostly moderate NW ground swell along the California coast that should back off Monday and Tuesday. NW swell is then due Wednesday, and it may be quite a while before we see another swell form in the northern part of the Pacific. The southern hemisphere has come to life though, with some light SW due late this week, and some fairly sizable swell due on the 23rd. Condition-wise, offshore Santa Ana continues through Tuesday, with some onshore flow coming in during the second half of the week. Tide though remains a bit deep today from a tidal swing due to a New Moon cresting tomorrow.

Currently, periods in SoCal are running 14 seconds from a very steep 290-300°.

Right now in SoCal, well-exposed west facing breaks are looking at sets running chest to head high. The steep angle of the NW though is making it tough for many breaks, especially in OC where island blockage is making for smaller surf. Direct south facing breaks are running waist+.

 

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Wind Outlook
Winds at 8:00 this morning were fairly calm along most coastal regions in SoCal, although Leo Carillo and Pt. Mugu reported NE winds over 15 mph, with gusts near 30. Strong high pressure over the area combined with tight NE gradients could continue to squeeze some winds through the canyons of SoCal today, funneling through mostly to the region spanning the south facing coasts of LA through much of Ventura County. In all though, even at the most wind-prone spots, ENE winds should remain below 15 mph, and be 5-10 mph most everywhere. Onshore flow kicks in this afternoon with most beaches seeing westerlies 7-12 mph. Conditions remain in tact through Tuesday, although gradients should relax somewhat. Wednesday sees a trough move past to the north, breaking down the high. This should leave the second half of the week in more of a diurnal pattern for SoCal: light and variables in the AM with afternoon onshores around 15 mph.

 

Weather Outlook
Still high and dry for SoCal. High pressure remains strong over the area as the jetstream stays far to the north. No rainmakers are expected to even come close to our region this week (or beyond). Beaches will likely stay in the mid 60s today as cold air slowly retreats, then warm into the mid 70s Monday and Tuesday as the offshore flow warms things up. Light troughing Wednesday should put the second half of the week into the mid to upper 60s along the coast.

 

Swell Forecast and Schedule
Synopsis
Still seeing quite a bit of NW swell in the outer waters with Harvest near 12 feet at 15 seconds, and San Nicolas 12 feet at 14 seconds. Swell is angled from 290-300°, so only some of this is wrapping into SoCal. This swell though is expected to back down sometime Monday, more so Tuesday.

Next swell hits on Wednesday. This is a NW'er from a Western Pacific system that formed last week, rode high in the jetstream, but built into a fetch with 30-foot seas once near the Gulf. The fetch formed at a moderate latitude, enough to bring some slightly overhead NW from around 290-300° for the well-exposed west facing breaks in SoCal. This swell though is a dieing breed when reading today's models, as even the most extreme long range models show things quieting down in the northern hemisphere.

The southern hemisphere, on the other hand, has been quite active. A light swath of SW is due Friday the 19th when the NW begins to back down. This light activity that formed near Antarctica late last week may only bring in waist to maybe chest high stuff from 190° with 14-second periods. But bigger swell is coming in behind it.

Models today confirm the SW swell for the 23rd. The zero hour models show a nicely sized fetch near New Zealand growing into 35- to near 40-foot seas in the next 24 hours. The trajectory on this will likely cause some angular spreading decay, but a fair amount of swell should be thrown our way nonetheless, mostly from 210° with at least 16-second periods -- 18 seconds are not out of the question. It looks, so far, like max size should reach head high at south facing breaks, perhaps a bit bigger depending on how this fetch grows over the next 24 hours.

Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:

 

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For those of you who wish to use Swellwatch on the go, WetSand has put together a mobile site, which can be used by any Internet enabled phone. Check out the site mobile.wetsand.com from your device, for up to date surf, tide, and weather information.

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Monday the 15th the NW swell should back off to chest high max around well-exposed west facing breaks.

Tuesday the 16th is looking smaller, perhaps just waist high at west facing breaks, smaller at south facing spots.

Wednesday the 17th should see surf running head high to slightly overhead from 290-300°. South facing breaks are looking at chest high wrap from this.

Thursday the 18th this swell may increase about 10%.

Friday the 19th this NW'er should back off to around chest high or so. Some southern hemi from 190° should come into the mix, mostly waist to maybe chest high at times at south facing spots.

Saturday the 20th the NW backs off even further to around waist high. Light southern hemi should remain at waist+ or so as well.

Sunday the 21st, so far, looks fairly small for west facing breaks. South facing breaks should see waist+ waves.

Monday the 22d, so far, looks smaller.

Tuesday the 23rd is when our next southern hemi swell is due. This could be a head high swell for most south facing breaks. More on this in my next report.

Until my next report, take care, be safe, and smile in the line-up!

—Nathan