Swell Forecast & Schedule

Report Date: Mon. September 6, 2010

By forecaster: Austin Gendron: austin@globalsurfreports.com

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Surf Synopsis:

Today (Monday) is the unofficial end to summer, and the weather is going to change starting tomorrow.  It looks like wind swell should back off starting Tuesday as well.  The rest of the week is looking pretty dull; with smaller wind swell and no new south swells on the horizon.  Take advantage of the holiday, and get some surf before it goes south.  

Recommended Board:

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Buoy Readings:
46059 California Buoy – 8 @ 8 seconds
46212 Humboldt Bay – 9 feet @ 9 seconds from 323 degrees
46014 Pt Arena Buoy – 10 feet @ 9 seconds
46026 San Francisco Buoy – 6 ft @ 10 seconds from 321 degrees
46042 Monterey – 8 ft @ 11 seconds from 313 degrees
46028 Cape San Martin – 12 feet @ 12 seconds from 310 degrees

The CDIP Buoy 157 is showing, NW periods dominantly about 11 seconds from 310 degrees, while southern hemi swell is showing up at 14 seconds from 170 degrees.

Currently most Northern California’s stand out west-facing breaks are seeing surf around head high to a couple feet overhead. While Central Coast breaks are in the waist to chest high range.  Stand out south facing spots should be seeing small to flat conditions possibly knee high.

Water temps are in low to mid 50’s through most of Northern and Central California, Crescent City showing 50, Pt Arena 51.  The San Francisco buoy is around 55 and further south Monterey is seeing 54 degrees and the Cape San Martin Buoy is at 58 degrees.
 

Wind Outlook:

Today (Monday) a brisk surface gradient continues from north to south, and should hold through the day.  It looks like strongest winds will be through Northern California, picking up through the south as the morning progresses.  One cool thing to note today is going to be the offshore flow aloft that will be preventing much of a sea breeze from developing.  This could mean lighter surface winds along the coast through much of the day.  The pressure gradient should weaken tonight as a new trough approaches the region.  Winds should let up through Thursday with a more onshore component.  The models are suggesting a slight increase in winds through the weekend.  Stay tuned.

 

Weather Outlook:

Today (Monday) with offshore aloft and a brisk northerly surface gradient over the Eastern Pacific, we’re seeing nice clear skies through Northern California, with some patches of low clouds along the Monterey Coast.  The rest of the Central Coast south of Morrow Bay is seeing low clouds and some marine like conditions this morning.  The low clouds should clear up through the day leaving everyone with a beautiful holiday.  A cold weather system starts to move in tonight and should stick around over the next several days.  Tuesday will be much cooler than today, as marine layer deepens and possibly brings some drizzle to the coast.  Marine layer could be mixed out on Wednesday during the day, but still expect morning and night cloudiness.  Thursday and Friday temperatures start to rebound as the trough moves eastward.  It looks like next weekend could bring a flat ridge, but the models are not in very good agreement right now.
 

Swell Forecast and Schedule:

Today wind swell subsides a little with in the morning, but is expected to pick up again as winds strengthen offshore through the day.  The wind swell development is greatest off the Northern California coast, decreasing in size as you travel down the coast.  Conditions are looking a bit cleaner along the Central Coast, where winds are light.  Leftover swell will be present on Tuesday but should start backing down through the day.  The rest of the week will see small to moderate NW wind swell with periods around 9 to 10 seconds.   

Long-range models aren’t looking too promising as of right now.  There aren’t any new systems to report from the south, and wind swell will most likely continue a trend of its season changing pattern. 

Stay tuned for more updates through the week…

Here's what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:
Today (Monday the 6th) wind swell should hold, although could pick up a bit through the day.  Size is currently expected to remain in the head high to overhead+ range along the exposed coast of Northern California, with short periods.  The Central Coast is going to see cleaner conditions, but much smaller size with stand out spots seeing waist to chest high.  It looks like its going to be a beautiful warm day, which is great considering it’s a holiday and the weather is expected to change on Tuesday.

Tuesday the 7th wind swell begins to back off bringing wave heights back down to the waist to head high range at typical breaks along the exposed coast.  Weather is expected to get cold and dreary as a new trough moves into the region. 

Wednesday the 8th continues to drop to the knee to waist high+ range as winds die off.  Weather could clear up, but temperatures are expected to remain cold.

Thursday the 9th not much change from Wednesday, possibly a small increase in wind swell. 

Friday the 10th any remaining wind swell drops down to the knee and waist high+ range.  Winds could start to pick up again as high-pressure builds. 

Saturday the 11th could show another day of small waist high surf at stand out breaks. 

Sunday the 12th looks like a repeat of Saturday. 

Beyond that it looks like more wind swell, but nothing much from the southern hemisphere.  Stay tuned…

That's it for today, be safe, and get in the water!

~ Austin