Swell Forecast & Schedule

Report Date & Time: Mon. March 15, 2010

By forecaster: Austin Gendron: austin@globalsurfreports.com

---

Sign-up for our FREE email forecast!

---

Surf Synopsis:

Today (Monday) it looks like we’re headed into nice week weather wise, with one large NW groundswell due to fill in through the day.   The groundswell looks like it could bring some decent size, but as it backs off later in the week, we’re going to start to see more spring/summer time conditions starting to fill in.  Long range shows a smaller NW due for the end of the week, as well as the first southern hemi swell of the season.  Read further for details…

For those of you who wish to use Swellwatch on the go, we have put together a mobile site, which can be used by any Internet enabled phone.  Check out the site mobile.wetsand.com from your device, for up to date Surf, Tide, and weather information, as well as our hand written reports…

Recommended Board:

---

Buoy Readings:

46059 California Buoy has been deployed, but awaits activation
46212 Humboldt Bay – 10 feet @ 13 seconds from 282 degrees
46014 Pt Arena Buoy – 10 feet @ 13 seconds
46026 San Francisco Buoy – 7 ft @ 13 seconds from 298 degrees
46042 Monterey Buoy – 7 ft @ 12 seconds from 293 degrees
46028 Cape San Martin – 9 feet @ 11 seconds from 305 degrees

The CDIP Buoy 157 is showing, NW periods dominantly about 12 seconds from 295 degrees, while south hemi swell is minimal.

Currently most Northern and Central California’s stand out west facing breaks are seeing surf in the range of overhead to a couple feet overhead.  Stand out south facing spots should be seeing conditions in the waist high+ to chest high+ range.

Water temps are in the low to mid 50’s through most of Northern and Central California, Crescent City showing 52, Pt Arena 53.  The San Francisco is around 53 and further south Monterey is seeing 55 degrees and Cape San Martin showing 55.

 

Wind Outlook:

Today (Monday) it looks like winds should continue to lighten ahead of the next cold front due for Tuesday.  As the cold front reaches the northern coast, southerly gradients could pick up, but it looks like most of the Central Coast will see lighter west to northwest flow.  As low pressure pushes NE into the Pacific Northwest, NW gradients will start to affect the Central Coast more, spreading into Northern California possibly offering some very gusty winds even gale force at times.  Other than that it looks like typically the week will bring westerly afternoon in the 10 KT range.  There doesn’t look to be any major pattern changes for the weekend.

Weather Outlook:

Today (Monday) there may be some mid and high-level clouds scattered about the state, but for the most part.  High pressure is expected to keep dry and mild weather around through the week for the most part.  The only exception is going to be the northern counties that may see some light rain Tuesday as a result of the cold front that is due.  This event is looking like it won’t even make it as far south as San Francisco.  After the trough passes, the ridge is expected to amplify, bringing more warm dry weather to the coast through the weekend. 

Swell Forecast and Schedule:

Today, we’re going to see leftovers from this weekends swell continuing to bring some decent surf to the coast, with conditions looking fair in some areas.  The models over the weekend produced a new fetch in the North Pacific, which developed seas around 30 feet north of Hawaii.  The swell is expected to impact the West Coast from the WNW to NW at around 290 to 295 degrees mid to late this afternoon.  The swell looks like it will build through Tuesday, with forerunners around 16 to 17 seconds backing off to 15 seconds during the peak late Tuesday into the early part of Wednesday.  This is the main swell event for the week, and it will back off through the end of the workweek.

There are two smaller groundswells showing up a bit further out as well.  The first is going to be the first major southern hemi swell of the season.  Filling in from around 188 degrees to 192 degrees.  The swell should start to fill in late Wednesday, with periods around 18 seconds.  Size will continue to increase through the end of the workweek, with a peak over the weekend.  Periods during the peak could be a bit shorter in the 14 to 15 second range, making it harder for some of the more sheltered locations to pick up the swell.  Size isn’t expected to be too great with this one, but stand out south facing breaks, could see some fun surf. 

The second groundswell expected for the end of the week is a much smaller NW from around 292 degrees.  The fetch is currently showing up on today’s models, peaking with seas around 25 feet along the western reaches of the Aleutian Chain.  The size of the swell is pretty small, and this will be reflected in surf heights.  The arrival should be later on the 19th building into the 20th peaking late in the day and holding the peak into the 21st.  

Beyond that, there isn’t much showing up on the long range models, and we could be in for a period of smaller background swell starting next week.  I don’t think the North Pacific is done for good though, and there could still be at least one or two more decent swells before we hit the summer doldrums.

Here's what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:
Today (Monday the 15th) a new swell arrival is due from the system discussed above.  Wave heights will slowly increase through the day before jumping up quite a bit mid to late in the afternoon.   Its hard to say how big this swell will actually be, but my calculations are showing possibly DOH+ with periods around 16 seconds.

Tuesday the 16th, Monday’s swell arrival continues to bring large surf to the coast.  Stand out breaks are estimated to be running in the DOH+ range.

Wednesday the 17th wave heights could peak early in the morning before backing down through the day.  Wave heights are suggested to peak at several feet above DOH at stand out breaks.  Periods should be in the 15-seconds range.  This groundswell is probably going to cover up the new arrival of south swell due from around 188 degrees with periods in the range of 18 seconds.

Thursday the 18th the NW swell continues to drop down to the overhead+ range, possibly larger at stand out breaks.  Periods should be around 13 seconds.  SW continues to increase in size, and could offer some knee to waist high+ sets, if the NW swell isn’t dominating south facing spots too much. 

Friday the 19th NW leftovers continue to impact the coast, and it looks like a new smaller NW could start to fill in with periods around 15 to 16-seconds.  SW continues to increase in size, possibly reaching the chest high+ range at stand out breaks. 

Saturday the 20th, the new NW fills in from 293 degrees and peaks possibly through the day with wave heights in the head high to overhead+ range.  SW continues to hold size in the range of waist high+ to chest high+ at stand out breaks as well with periods around 14 seconds.

Sunday the 21st NW should start to back down from overhead+ to a couple feet overhead at stand out breaks.  Periods should hold in the 15-second range.  SW will also hold in the range of waist to chest high+ with periods around 14 seconds from 192 degrees. 

Further out there isn’t much to get excited about as of right now, but if any new developments present themselves I’ll report later in the week.

That's it for today, be safe, and get in the water!

~ Austin