Swell Forecast & Schedule

Report Date: Mon. March 8, 2010
Forecast Source: NWS and NCDDC.

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Surf Zone Forecast

National Weather Service- Honolulu, HI

Surf along north facing shores will be 6 to 8 feet today lowering to 3 to 5 feet Tuesday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 5 feet today lowering to 1 to 3 feet Tuesday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet today rising to 4 to 7 feet Tuesday.

Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Tuesday.

Outlook through Sunday Mar 14: fresh to strong trade winds this week may produce advisory size surf of 8 feet on eastern shores by Tuesday or Wednesday. A small northwest swell late Friday is possible.

The choppy trade wind swell along east facing shores will lower temporarily through Monday. The surf will remain small along the south facing shores during the forecast period.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

Collaborative Nearshore Forecast for Oahu

NWS/NCDDC- Honolulu, HI

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available. When Pat Caldwell is not available, the latest collaborative forecast will remain posted for 4 days.

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

Summary: calendar says winter, conditions say spring.

Detailed: mid Friday on northern shores has small, wind-ripped surf. Similar conditions are expected on Saturday.

The jet stream shifted northward this week, with a more zonal pattern, keeping systems further away, and tracking them faster, resulting in below winter average conditions locally.

A system passed the dateline this past Monday and raced eastward just south of the Aleutians on Tuesday, entering the gulf of Alaska on Wednesday. The strongest surface winds aimed at targets NE of Hawaii. The duration-limited fetch of gales in the 325-345 degree band were beyond 1500 nm away. Wave watch iii output for Waimea bay buoy location suggested a moderate surf episode. Backup buoy 51101 WNW of Kauai shows minimal energy in the 12-15 second band associated with this source Thursday night into Friday. The Waimea buoy readings on Friday suggest more surf potential is derived from the refracting ENE windswell. Since the latter is expected to continue into Saturday, similar small surf heights should continue for locations exposed to the refracting windswell.

Another low pressure deepened rapidly near the dateline early Thursday. Once again, the strongest winds were aimed well NE of Hawaii. A fetch of marginal gales was aimed at Hawaii in the 320-340 degree band starting Thursday, reaching to within about 1200 nm of Oahu on Friday. The system was steered rapidly east by the zonal jet stream and models show the fetch dissipating steadily by late Friday.

Based on the over estimation by Wave Watch III for the previous episode, low confidence is given to the output for the following episode. For the second case, at least the fetch length was longer. At best a moderate episode is expected, building Sunday from 320-340 degrees, peaking Sunday night, and dropping on Monday.

Models show the next system weaker and also fast-paced, crossing the dateline over the weekend. A small episode is expected Wednesday from 330-350 degrees.

Mid Friday on eastern shores has rough, marginally high breakers from 40-90 degrees. Fresh to strong trades with similar breakers expected into Saturday, as winds slowly decrease and back in direction giving more northerly component on Sunday. See the latest NWS state weather forecast discussion for an explanation and details.

An area of mostly moderate winds to the immediate NE of Oahu starting Sunday should lead to a decrease in windswell, with a minimum Monday morning. A new fresh to strong trade wind event is expected next week, with breakers building steadily at least by Tuesday, holding into Wednesday.

Mid Friday on southern shores has minimal wave energy from southern hemisphere sources and should stay the same through the period. The kilo nalu wave sensor off kakaako shows dominant wave periods of 8-10 seconds caused by the refracted windswell from the east. More of the same is expected with similar trends as described above.

Into the long range, an extratropical cyclone tracked SE of New Zealand over the past 48 hours. The zonal track limits surf potential. A small, long-period episode is expected locally starting late next Thursday last a few days.

In the northern hemisphere, models show a storm-force system approaching the dateline around Thursday, for potentially a high surf episode around March 14. Strong trades are expected into next Friday.

Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, March 8.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS Forecaster HOAG and Pat Caldwell , Pacific/Hawaii Liaison Office, NCDDC