Swell Forecast & Schedule

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Surf Synopsis
This morning (Tuesday) we have a small mix of SW ground swell and NW wind swell along the California coast. No major change over the next few days, but we will see some southerly swell this coming weekend. A bigger swell is being tracked for late next week.

Currently, periods are primarily running 11 seconds from 310° and 14 seconds from 170°.

In SoCal, most all breaks are seeing knee to waist high waves.

Wind Outlook
Winds at 6:00 this morning were light and variable most everywhere but with an onshore, southerly element in many spots. Winds are expected to increase throughout the morning from the west and reach 9-14 mph this afternoon. With troughing well in place over the region, look for similar conditions through at least Friday.

Weather Outlook
Heavy onshore flow is in place as troughing from the north has dipped southward into SoCal. From now through Friday at the coast: look for heavy marine layer, late burn-off, AM drizzle, and max temps around 65°. Trough should lift northward this weekend, yet high pressure is not looking overly impressive; still, we should see some thinning of the marine layer and warming of temps Saturday into early next week.

Swell Forecast and Schedule
Synopsis
Not a whole lot out there now, but swell is on the way. Although smallness continues through the rest of the work-week, Saturday the 11th into Sunday the 12th we should see some 175° energy come up from a small system that formed south of Easter Island this past week. With only 20-25' seas it ain't much, but its trajectory was northward, which allowed this system to throw some swell energy toward SoCal. Still, it's not looking momentous by any means, with only 14+ second periods and size chest high max. Note also that once the tide starts to rise late in the morning this coming weekend, many spots will get shut down from the extreme tidal depths, especially the reefs and points.

Next swell on the charts has an ETA for late in the day on the 16th into the 17th. This is from a system that formed off Antarctica south of New Zealand and is expected to head eastward near the Pole, then northward once south of French Polynesia. This last leg of this storm's sojourn in the southern hemisphere would direct energy directly at SoCal from about 180-190° with 16+ second periods. Seas, according to the 84h models, could reach 35'. This could turn into a swell with waves running 1-2' overhead, but conservative calculations call for surf running shoulder high to 1' overhead max. In either case, since this is still out on the long range models, I'll need a few more days to see how it all plays out. I'll continue to keep an eye on it and keep you posted.

Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:

Wednesday the 8th looks smaller at this point, perhaps knee+ most everywhere.

Thursday the 9th also looks rather small: knee high most everywhere.

Friday the 10th looks smaller.

Saturday the 11th we should see swell start to build from the Easter Island swell. Most south facing breaks are looking at waist high surf in the early AM, building to about chest max later in the day.

Sunday the 12th this swell should peak with chest high sets around most south facing breaks. Note that the 175° angle though will limit this swell to direct south facing breaks; SW exposed spots will see less energy.

Monday the 13th this swell should back down to waist to chest.

Tuesday the 14th looks smaller, about waist high most everywhere.

Wednesday the 15th, looks unimpressive as well about knee to waist most everywhere.

Thursday the 16th into Friday the 17th is the ETA for our next southern hemi swell. Current estimates point to swell arrival mid to late morning on the 16th, with full impact on Friday the 17th. Size, according to this morning's long range model run, is looking to run shoulder high to 1' overhead at breaks able to work a 180° angle (direct south). Working on the long range models though, I'll need a few more days to see how this all plays out. I'll keep you posted.

Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the line-up!

—Nathan