Swell Forecast & Schedule

Report Date: Mon. February 8, 2010
Forecast Source: NWS and NCDDC.

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Surf Zone Forecast

National Weather Service- Honolulu, HI

Surf along north facing shores will be 4 to 8 feet through Tuesday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Tuesday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 3 feet through Tuesday.

Surf along south facing shores will be less than 3 feet through Tuesday.

Outlook through Sunday Feb 14: surf is expected to rise significantly Tuesday night along the island's north and west shores. The surf is from a northwest swell generated by a large and powerful storm system far northwest of the Hawaiian islands. The surf is likely to reach warning level heights of 25 and 20 feet for the island's north and west shores respectively and persist through Thursday before lowering into advisory levels Friday. A reinforcing smaller northwest swell is expected to come in Saturday and maintain advisory level surf into the weekend.

An out of season south swell is slated to arrive as early as Wednesday, peaking late Wednesday night and Thursday morning along the island's south facing shores. The surf has the potential of reaching the 8 foot high surf advisory threshold for the south facing shores.

So there this surf to go around the middle and latter half of the work week.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

Collaborative Nearshore Forecast for Oahu

NWS/NCDDC- Honolulu, HI

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available. When Pat Caldwell is not available, the latest collaborative forecast will remain posted for 4 days.

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

Summary:  short-lived high episode for Saturday and more winter-caliber surf mid next week.

Detailed: mid Friday on northern shores has moderate, building breakers. An episode from 310-325 degrees is declining while a long period swell rises. Heights should reach the high mark Friday afternoon from 300-315 degrees.

The rising swell on Friday was generated by a hurricane-force system that formed east of Tokyo late Monday. It tracked quickly to the NE into Tuesday then slowed down late Tuesday west of the dateline as the low pressure center occluded, meaning the jet stream level swirled as a gyre directly above the low level counter-clockwise circulation. The system weakened on Wednesday and drifted westward.

Buoy 51101 to the WNW of Kauai showed significant energy in the 19-23 second band on Friday morning, that should correspond to a rapid jump in heights locally Friday afternoon. Surf should peak overnight in the marginally extra-large category, meaning breakers on outer reefs. With neap tides of only 1.7 feet at high tide overnight, no coastal wave wash beyond normal winter conditions is expected. High heights should hold through Saturday from 305-315 degrees. With the short duration of the compact system, the higher surf heights should be short-lived, dropping into the moderate category on Sunday and down to small levels by Monday afternoon from the same direction.

The occluded low pressure drifted west to an area about 600 nm east of Kamchatka on Thursday. The system regained storm-force status by late Thursday into Friday morning in the 310-320 degree band in an area over 2200 nm away. Models show this system weakening on Saturday. A moderate episode is expected locally late Monday, peaking on Tuesday, and dropping on Wednesday.

A fast-moving, weak low pressure about 900 nm north of Hawaii late Friday into Saturday could make for a short-lived, small episode from 345-010 degrees on Monday.

The jet stream is reverting to a winter-type pattern with a southerly shift in the NW Pacific. Models show a broad area of deep low pressure forming east of Japan, tracking eastward along about 35°N, creating severe-gale to storm-force winds over a wide, long fetch in the 280-305 degree band for Saturday into Monday. The head of this fetch is expected to reach the dateline late Sunday at 30°N latitude, or about 1300 nm away from Oahu. With dominate energy in the 17-20 second band, that would bring the forerunners in locally Tuesday afternoon. Surf should climb into the high category on Oahu around sundown on Tuesday. The episode is expected to peak from 280-305 degrees on Wednesday in the extra-large category. This directional band receives shadowing by Kauai and Niihau. See the link below the table above for diagrams of the shadowing.

Models show gales to severe gales in the 305-320 degree band as the center of low pressure tracks toward the Aleutians just east of the dateline on Monday into Tuesday. Near gales behind a front are expected to nose within 700 nm of Hawaii in the 305-330 degree band on Tuesday. Energy from this direction should make for high surf, though the dominant direction for the mid week episode should be 280-305 degrees.

Mid Friday on eastern shores has small breakers from the recent N to NE winds. No significant locally generated windswell is expected through the period.

See the latest NWS state weather forecast discussion and marine forecast products for explanations and the freshest estimates of coastal winds.

Mid Friday on southern shores has tiny to small breakers, likely from dominant westerly components. Above average surf on southern shores is expected later in the period.

Various sources in the southern hemisphere became active over the past week. An extratropical low pressure system about 4000 nm due south of Hawaii on Sunday into Tuesday had marginal gales in the 175-185 degree band. Surf from this source is expected to pick up on Tuesday, making for small breakers, lasting a couple of days.

Tropical cyclone Oli tracked toward the SSE to the west of Tahiti on Thursday. The system is expected to continue a track to the SE. Mid period swell of 11-14 seconds from this source is possible by Wednesday from 165-175 degrees, lasting a couple of days.

Higher surf is expected from the third source. A broad extratropical cyclone formed SE of New Zealand on Wednesday, much stronger than typical for the austral summer. The jet stream steered the system to the NNE, making a favorable captured fetch for targets just east of Hawaii. Seas grew over 30 feet for a wide area. Long period swell from 180-190 degrees is expected to fill in locally next Wednesday in the moderate to marginally high category.

The combination of these southerly swells, and above average energy from westerly components could make for marginally high surf conditions for select south shore locations next Wednesday out a few days.

Into the long range, models show a series of out-of-season, extratropical cyclones passing to the SE of New Zealand over the next 10 days, making for above seasonal average conditions on southern shores for the latter half of February.

In the north Pacific, a classic Aleutian low pressure system is expected to fill the central north Pacific basin mid to late next week and holding, with offspring low pressure areas forming on the western side with about a 2-3 days spacing, then being absorbed into the parent low north of Hawaii. This should make for above average winter surf late next week into the week of presidents day. These episodes should have more dominant NW component, thus with less shadowing, and track closer, making potential for higher surf locally than the WNW one due mid next week. Such a pattern with give way to day to day changes in the local winds.

Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, February 8.  

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS Forecaster HOAG and Pat Caldwell, Pacific/Hawaii Liaison Office, NCDDC